Stringent Mitigation Substantially Reduces Risk of Unprecedented Near-Term Warming Rates

McKenna C.M., Maycock A.C., Forster P.M., Smith C.J. and Tokarska K.B. 2021. Stringent Mitigation Substantially Reduces Risk of Unprecedented Near-Term Warming Rates. Nature Climate Change. 11(2), pp.126-131. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00957-9.

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Nicholls Z., Meinshausen M., Lewis J., Corradi M.R., Dorheim K., Gasser T., Gieseke R., Hope A.P., Leach N.J., McBride L.A., Quilcaille Y., Rogelj J., Salawitch R.J., Samset B.H., Sandstad M., Shiklomanov A., Skeie R.B., Smith C.J., Smith S.J., Su X., Tsutsui J., Vega-Westhoff B. and Woodard D.L. 2021. Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections. Earth's Future. 9(6), pe2020EF001900. DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001900.

Uncertainty in Carbon Budget Estimates Due to Internal Climate Variability

Tokarska K.B., Arora V.K., Gillett N.P., Lehner F., Rogelj J., Schleussner C.-F., Séférian R. and Knutti R. 2020. Uncertainty in Carbon Budget Estimates Due to Internal Climate Variability. Environmental Research Letters. 15(10), p104064. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abaf1b.

The Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols on the Aleutian Low

Dow W.J., Maycock A., Lofverstrom M. and Smith C.J. 2021. The Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols on the Aleutian Low. Journal of Climate. 34(5), pp.1725-1741. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0423.1.

The Impact of CO2-Driven Climate Change on the Arctic Atmospheric Energy Budget in CMIP6 Climate Model Simulations

Linke O. and Quaas J. 2022. The Impact of CO2-Driven Climate Change on the Arctic Atmospheric Energy Budget in CMIP6 Climate Model Simulations. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography. 74(1), pp.106–118. DOI: 10.16993/tellusa.29.

Responsibility of Major Emitters for Country-Level Warming and Extreme Hot Years

Beusch L., Nauels A., Gudmundsson L., Gütschow J., Schleussner C.-F. and Seneviratne S.I. 2022. Responsibility of Major Emitters for Country-Level Warming and Extreme Hot Years. Communications Earth & Environment. 3(1), p7. DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00320-6.

Uncertainty in Near-Term Temperature Evolution Must Not Obscure Assessments of Climate Mitigation Benefits

Lanson A., Pfleiderer P., Lehner F. and Schleussner C.-F. 2022. Uncertainty in Near-Term Temperature Evolution Must Not Obscure Assessments of Climate Mitigation Benefits. Nature Communications. 13(1), p4029. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31425-x.

The HadGEM3-GA7.1 Radiative Kernel: The Importance of a Well-Resolved Stratosphere

Smith C.J., Kramer R.J. and Sima A. 2020. The HadGEM3-GA7.1 Radiative Kernel: The Importance of a Well-Resolved Stratosphere. Earth System Science Data. 12(3), pp.2157-2168. DOI: 10.5194/essd-12-2157-2020.

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII Climate Assessment of Mitigation Pathways: From Emissions to Global Temperatures

Kikstra J.S., Nicholls Z.R.J., Smith C.J., Lewis J., Lamboll R.D., Byers E., Sandstad M., Meinshausen M., Gidden M.J., Rogelj J., Kriegler E., Peters G.P., Fuglestvedt J.S., Skeie R.B., Samset B.H., Wienpahl L., van Vuuren D.P., van der Wijst K.I., Al Khourdajie A., Forster P.M., Reisinger A., Schaeffer R. and Riahi K. 2022. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII Climate Assessment of Mitigation Pathways: From Emissions to Global Temperatures. Geoscientific Model Development. 15(24), pp.9075-9109. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022.

The Southern Hemisphere Midlatitude Circulation Response to Rapid Adjustments and Sea Surface Temperature Driven Feedbacks

Wood T., Maycock A.C., Forster P.M., Richardson T.B., Andrews T., Boucher O., Myhre G., Samset B.H., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque J.-F., Mülmenstädt J., Olivié D., Takemura T. and Watson-Parris D. 2020. The Southern Hemisphere Midlatitude Circulation Response to Rapid Adjustments and Sea Surface Temperature Driven Feedbacks. Journal of Climate. 33(22), pp.9673-9690. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1015.1.