Zero in on remaining carbon budget and decadal warming rates

ZERO IN Report 4

Our fourth ZERO IN report looks at how cutting emissions in this critical decade for climate can limit temperature rise and other climate impacts in the near-term. In doing so it provides supporting information on the latest IPCC reports, unpacking the level of action needed to slow down and even halt warming in the coming decades, in line with the Paris Agreement. It also shows how increased ambition and action can limit the worst climate impacts, from floods and cyclones to heatwaves, across the world.


About Constrain

The 2015 Paris Agreement sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C, whilst pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. However, predicting how the climate will change over the next 20-50 years, as well as defining the emissions pathways that will set and keep the world on track, requires a better understanding of how several human and natural factors will affect the climate in coming decades. These include how atmospheric aerosols affect the Earth's radiation budget, and the roles of clouds and oceans in driving climate change.

The EU-funded CONSTRAIN project, a consortium of 14 European partners, is developing a better understanding of these variables, feeding them into climate models to reduce uncertainties, and creating improved climate projections for the next 20-50 years on regional as well as global scales. In doing so, CONSTRAIN will take full advantage of existing knowledge from the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) as well as other Horizon 2020 and European Research Council projects.