Research update

Policy briefing: Climate and Earth system insights and advances


Through the Paris Agreement, countries collectively committed to keep warming well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Over the past decades, global emissions and temperatures have continued to increase, with global climate impacts consequently becoming more extreme and more frequent.

The 2023 UNEP emissions gap report found that by following the pledged emissions reductions for 2030 known as Nationally Determined Contributions (or NDCs), we are currently on track for a warming of 2.5-2.9°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.

As the window for limiting warming to 1.5°C closes, the need to understand Earth system responses to increasing CO2 levels and subsequent temperature increases becomes ever more important.

This briefing combines insights from four Horizon 2020 EU funded research projects: ESM2025, CONSTRAIN, 4C and PROVIDE.

These projects are all designed to provide policy-relevant research to support or monitor the implementation of the Paris Agreement.

The briefing highlights new research insights and remaining research gaps that need to be addressed to help identify effective and efficient pathways and responses to climate change.