ZERO IN Report 1

Zero in on remaining carbon budget and decadal warming rates

This first CONSTRAIN report zeroes in on the remaining carbon budget as well as projected surface warming rates over the next 20 years. Both topics are vitally important to the implementation of the Paris Agreement.

Future reports, to be published annually, will provide further information on crucial scientific concepts relevant to the Paris Agreement, as well as background and context on new developments that relate to the science-policy interface.

The downloadable graphics are also presented within the report, alongside a full description.

Download Report

Browse Graphics

View Interactive

Figure 1 Figure 1 A schematic representation of the methodological approach used to derive the remaining carbon budget and related uncertainties, based on Rogelj et al. (2019)
Download Graphic Figure 2 Figure 2 Overview of value judgements and climate science components determining the size of the remaining carbon budget.
Download Graphic Figure 3 Figure 3 Global surface air temperature change per decade for the 2020-2040 (near-term) reference period under three Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP1-1.9 [green]; SSP1-2.6 [orange]; SSP5-8.5 [blue]) and current nationally determined contributions (NDCs [grey]), as derived from the FaIR simple climate mode (box plots) and the CMIP6 model-average ensemble (filled dots).
Download Graphic Figure 4 Figure 4 Examples of forcing adjustment mechanisms, adapted from Sherwood et al. (2015)
Download Graphic Figure 5 Figure 5 Overview of historical ECS estimates. p denotes probability. Figure credit: Thorsten Mauritsen (CONSTRAIN).